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GE Vernova Inc. (GEV)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record orders ($13.2B, +22% organic, ~1.3x revenue) and record revenue ($10.6B, +5%, +9% organic) drove the first quarter of double-digit adjusted EBITDA margin (10.2%) and net income of $0.5B; backlog reached $119B .
  • Segment margins expanded across Power (14.9% EBITDA), Electrification (13.0%), and Wind turned modestly profitable (0.6%), with onshore delivering its most profitable quarter in over three years .
  • Reaffirmed FY2025 guidance: revenue $36–$37B, high-single-digit adjusted EBITDA margin, FCF $2.0–$2.5B; Power 13–14% EBITDA margin, Electrification 11–13%, Wind EBITDA loss $200–$400M .
  • Capital returns in focus: declared $0.25 dividend (paid Jan 28, 2025), initiated $6B buyback authorization with $3M repurchased in late Dec; cash balance increased to $8.2B .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Strong Q4 profitability: “We delivered our first quarter of double-digit margins with expansion in all 3 segments, driven by more profitable volume, price and productivity” .
  • Electrification momentum: Q4 orders ~$4.8B (~2.2x revenue), margins expanded 500 bps; “we expect this segment to deliver double-digit EBITDA margin in ’25” .
  • Onshore Wind turnaround: “Onshore delivered its most profitable quarter in over 3 years on strong volume, price and productivity” .

What Went Wrong

  • Offshore headwinds: 2024 recorded ~$1B incremental contract losses; although Q4 EBITDA improved ~$300M YoY, offshore execution remains a drag .
  • Cash flow deceleration in Q4: Cash from operations fell to $0.9B from $1.9B in Q4’23; FCF declined to $0.6B from $1.7B due to lower down payments and improved linearity .
  • Wind orders decreased 41% organically in Q4, reflecting tough comps and continued selectivity; management remains cautious on timing of North America onshore inflection amid interconnection and rate headwinds .

Financial Results

Total Company – Quarterly Comparison

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Billions)$10.045 $8.204 $8.913 $10.559
Diluted EPS ($)$0.72 $4.65 $(0.35) $1.73
Net Income Margin (%)2.0% 15.6% (1.1)% 4.6%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)$0.584 $0.524 $0.243 $1.079
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)5.8% 6.4% 2.7% 10.2%
Cash from Operations ($USD Billions)$1.933 $0.978 $1.127 $0.922
Free Cash Flow ($USD Billions)$1.651 $0.821 $0.968 $0.572

Segment Breakdown – Q4 2024

SegmentOrders ($USD Billions)Revenue ($USD Billions)Segment EBITDA ($USD Billions)Segment EBITDA Margin (%)
Power$6.552 $5.431 $0.810 14.9%
Wind$2.031 $3.109 $0.019 0.6%
Electrification$4.786 $2.181 $0.283 13.0%

KPIs and Operational Metrics

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Orders ($USD Billions)$11.8 $9.4 $13.2
Backlog ($USD Billions)$115 —$119
Cash Balance ($USD Billions)$5.8 $7.4 $8.2
Equipment Rev Growth YoY(4%) (Q2) +9% (Q3) +6% (Q4)
Services Rev Growth YoY+7% (Q2) +7% (Q3) +4% (Q4)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Revenue ($B)FY2025$36–$37 $36–$37 Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA MarginFY2025High-single digits High-single digits Maintained
Free Cash Flow ($B)FY2025$2.0–$2.5 $2.0–$2.5 Maintained
Power EBITDA MarginFY202513–14% 13–14% Maintained
Wind EBITDAFY2025$(200)–$(400)M $(200)–$(400)M Maintained
Electrification EBITDA MarginFY202511–13% 11–13% Maintained
DividendQ4 2024 Declared—$0.25/share; payable Jan 28, 2025; record Dec 20, 2024 New cash dividend
Share RepurchaseAuthorization—$6B authorization; ~$3M repurchased late Dec 2024 New authorization

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
AI-driven gas demandGas equipment orders >50% YoY in 1H; 30 HDGT booked in H1; pipeline building “Slot reservations” 9 GW; HDGT production ramp to 70–80/year from 48; premium slots in 2028–2029 Accelerating
Electrification backlog & N.A. growthBacklog up to ~$17B; orders doubled in N.A.; margin expansion underway Electrification orders ~$4.8B; double-digit margin guidance for ’25; N.A. share now ~20–25% Expanding
Wind executionQ2 offshore blade event; approaching profitability in 2024; onshore high-single-digit margins target Q4 wind modestly profitable; onshore most profitable quarter in 3 years; offshore losses persist Improving onshore; offshore challenged
Capacity & premium slotsLean enabling HVDC and switchgear capacity adds; doubling UK HVDC valve capacity Potential accelerated capacity build in Electrification; sell premium slots; Greenville supply chain ramp Capacity build accelerating
Nuclear/SMRSteam divestiture; nuclear services ongoing SMR consortium with U.S. utilities (BWRX-300); U.S./Japan restart/upgrades Longer-term optionality

Management Commentary

  • “We finished 2024 strong with record quarterly orders and revenues and adjusted EBITDA margin reaching 10.2%... expansion in all 3 segments, driven by more profitable volume, price and productivity” — CFO Ken Parks .
  • “We added more than $6B of margin to our equipment backlog... backlog has grown over 50% to $43B” — CEO Scott Strazik .
  • “We expect Electrification to deliver double-digit EBITDA margin in ’25 and expand further...” — CEO Scott Strazik .
  • “Onshore delivered its most profitable quarter in over 3 years... Wind was modestly profitable in Q4” — CFO Ken Parks .

Q&A Highlights

  • Gas turbine pricing and premium slots: Pricing strong; limited differentiation between 2027–2029 shipments; focus on securing EPC schedules alongside equipment .
  • Electrification capacity expansion: Near-term acceleration in N.A. switchgear capacity; lean-driven capacity adds without heavy bricks-and-mortar .
  • SMR momentum: New U.S. utility consortium; Canada commissioning in 2029; broader U.S. deployments 2032+; growing Japan restarts .
  • Wind cadence: Caution on North America onshore order timing; Q1’25 wind revenue mid-single-digit growth; EBITDA losses consistent YoY due to increased services investment .
  • Backlog margins: Continued pricing accretion in Power and Electrification; wind backlog margins stabilized at improved levels vs 2023 .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates (EPS, Revenue, EBITDA, counts) for Q4 2024 were unavailable due to access constraints during retrieval. Actual results are shown; note that comparison to Wall Street consensus could not be performed at this time.
  • Given reaffirmed FY2025 guidance and margin expansion, estimate revisions may focus on Electrification margin trajectory and Power backlog monetization cadence; Offshore Wind loss guidance (−$200M to −$400M) sets conservative baseline .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q4 inflection to double-digit adjusted EBITDA margin, with broad-based segment margin expansion; strong pricing and productivity offset inflation .
  • Demand catalysts: AI/data-center-driven gas capacity adds (premium slots), HVDC/switchgear orders, and upgraded services scope; backlog $119B supports visibility .
  • Electrification is the near-term growth/margin engine; management targeting continued double-digit margins and capacity expansion in N.A. .
  • Onshore Wind profitability improving; Offshore remains execution/contract-loss overhang—risk-managed via selectivity and completion path (Vineyard ’25, Dogger Bank ’26) .
  • Strong balance sheet and capital returns: $8.2B cash, dividend initiated ($0.25), $6B buyback authorization (first $3M executed) .
  • FY2025 guidance reaffirmed across revenue, margins, and FCF; segment targets provide granularity for monitoring margin trajectory .
  • Near-term trading: Positive setup from record orders/revenue and margin expansion; watch updates on gas slot conversions, electrification capacity adds, and offshore execution milestones as key stock catalysts .